The takeaway
VanEck Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in October (+2.7%) and softest in February (−2.7%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 60% of years, averaging +1.5%, roughly 0.7 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
VanEck Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF's most dependable month has been October, higher in 8 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+3.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−2.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is VanEck Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating VanEck Uranium+Nuclear Energy ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 100% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and October is the anchor — it has closed higher in 8 of 10 Octobers, the steadiest beat on its year.
A typical October brings +1.5%, a shade under the +2.7% average. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — October has outpaced the S&P 500 by +1.7 points on average. Few peers keep such company in October — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
October anchors a run, too: the July-through-January window has been the fund's reliable season. The weaker half of the year is plainer: February has been the soft spot — the only month to average an outright loss (−2.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in February, November, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −17.5% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
October has now closed higher 6 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Octobers run ahead of the earlier years.
For a fund this dependable in October, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the fund's best month (October), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (October, +2.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −2.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +2.7% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade