The takeaway
Nelnet Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+6.4%) and softest in January (−1.5%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +6.4%, about +4.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Nelnet Inc's most dependable month has been July, higher in 8 of 10 years; January has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | ||||||||||||
| 2017 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+4.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Nelnet Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Nelnet Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. July stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Julys, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
A typical July brings +4.5%, a shade under the +6.4% average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.2 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: April, May, and October have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, January has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, January, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −13.8% May in 2017 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (January), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (July, +6.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (January, −1.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +6.4% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade