The takeaway
Nu Holdings Ltd shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in October (+10.1%) and softest in December (−6.7%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 25% of years, averaging −1.1%, roughly 3.3 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Nu Holdings Ltd's most dependable month has been October, higher in 4 of 4 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+14.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−7.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Nu Holdings Ltd’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Nu Holdings Ltd’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, October has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: October, up in all 4 Octobers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+10.1%) and median (+9.2%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 4.5% spread), and even its worst October in 5 years lost only 5.7% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: October has cleared the S&P 500 by +9.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages October only about 53% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, February, and June have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, December has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−6.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in December, November, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −36.1% May in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: October aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (October, +10.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (December, −6.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +10.1% and closing higher in all 4 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade