The takeaway
AXS 1.25X NVDA Bear Daily ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in April (−1.9%) and softest in May (−30.9%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 25% of years, averaging −12.5%, roughly 14.6 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
AXS 1.25X NVDA Bear Daily ETF's most dependable month has been April, higher in 2 of 3 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in December (+1.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−31.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is AXS 1.25X NVDA Bear Daily ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating AXS 1.25X NVDA Bear Daily ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, April has closed higher 67% of the time versus 67% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The year leans April's way without overwhelming the rest of it: the fund has closed higher in 2 of 3 Aprils, its most dependable month if not a dominant one.
Its average (−1.9%) and median (+0.8%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 5.4% spread).
At the other end of the calendar, May has been the soft spot — the weakest of 10 months that average a loss (−30.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in May, August, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −81.9% August in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With a short 4-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (April), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2022 its best month (April, −1.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, −30.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging −1.9% and closing higher in 2 of 3 years since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −30.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade