The takeaway
Nayax Ltd shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in January (+18.9%) and softest in March (−7.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 67% of years, averaging +1.5%, roughly 0.6 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Nayax Ltd's most dependable month has been January, higher in 3 of 3 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+19.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−8.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Nayax Ltd’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Nayax Ltd’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, January has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — January. It has closed higher in all 3 Januaries, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+18.9%) and median (+19.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even January ranges by 8.3% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — January has outpaced the S&P 500 by +19.1 points on average. Few peers keep such company in January — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — May, June, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−7.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, November, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −22.3% November in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a stock this dependable in January, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2022 its best month (January, +18.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −7.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +18.9% and closing higher in all 3 years on record since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −7.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade