The takeaway
Origin Bancorp, Inc. shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in October (+3.1%) and softest in September (−4.2%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 63% of years, averaging +4.8%, about +2.7 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Origin Bancorp, Inc.'s most dependable month has been October, higher in 7 of 8 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+2.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−6.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Origin Bancorp, Inc.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Origin Bancorp, Inc.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 100% of the time versus 88% across the last 8 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and October is the anchor — it has closed higher in 7 of 8 Octobers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+3.1%) and median (+3.4%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. No month is steadier: October's returns vary by just 2.5% year to year, and even its worst October in 8 years lost only 0.8% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — October has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.1 points on average. Few peers keep such company in October — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
October anchors a run, too: the October-through-December window has been the stock's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−4.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −35.1% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
October has now closed higher 7 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Octobers run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in October, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2018 its best month (October, +3.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −4.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +3.1% and closing higher in 7 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade