The takeaway
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+5.9%) and softest in December (−2.7%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +7.2%, about +5.0 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Old Dominion Freight Line Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 8 of 10 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+5.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−3.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Old Dominion Freight Line Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Old Dominion Freight Line Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 60% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. November stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Novembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
A typical November brings +4.0%, a shade under the +5.9% average. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 5.9% spread), and even its worst November in 10 years lost only 1.6% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.6 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, February, and June have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, December has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−2.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in December, April, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −21.5% December in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
At its steadiest, November strung together 7 straight positive years. The pattern has softened of late, November's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +5.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (December, −2.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +5.9% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade