The takeaway
VanEck Oil Services ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in January (+1.9%) and softest in August (−2.7%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 60% of years, averaging +1.2%, roughly 0.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
VanEck Oil Services ETF's most dependable month has been January, higher in 6 of 10 years; August has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−5.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is VanEck Oil Services ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating VanEck Oil Services ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 80% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The strength here is spread across the year rather than banked in one month: 6 of its 12 months have closed higher more often than not, January (up in 6 of 10 Januaries) edging a crowded field.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+1.9%) and median (+1.8%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even January ranges by 10.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — January has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.1 points on average.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — May, June, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, August has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−2.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, August, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −56.2% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Januaries run ahead of the earlier years.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise.
Short answers on the fund's best month (January), its worst (August), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (January, +1.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (August, −2.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +1.9% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade