The takeaway
Okta Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in January (+7.9%) and softest in September (−3.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 56% of years, averaging +2.3% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Okta Inc's most dependable month has been January, higher in 6 of 8 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2017 | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+8.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in October (−4.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Okta Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Okta Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, January has closed higher 60% of the time versus 75% across the last 9 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) January return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: January, up in 6 of 8 Januaries while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+7.9%) and median (+7.5%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even January ranges by 12.3% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: January has cleared the S&P 500 by +8.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages January only about 53% of the time.
Only April comes anywhere near it for reliability. The weaker half of the year is plainer: September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−3.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in October, September, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −33.0% May in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, January's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: January aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (January), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2017 its best month (January, +7.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −3.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
January has been the strongest, averaging +7.9% and closing higher in 6 of 8 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade