The takeaway
On Holding Ltd shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in November (+15.0%) and softest in September (−6.6%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 75% of years, averaging +8.4%, about +6.3 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
On Holding Ltd's most dependable month has been November, higher in 5 of 5 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+12.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in September (−6.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is On Holding Ltd’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating On Holding Ltd’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — November. It has closed higher in all 5 Novembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
A typical November brings +9.8%, a shade under the +15.0% average. Few months are steadier: November's returns vary by just 6.7% year to year, and even its worst November in 5 years lost only 9.4% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +12.7 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — March and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−6.6%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in September, December, and August. Its roughest month on record was a −31.8% January in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
November has now closed higher 5 years running.
For a stock this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (November, +15.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −6.6%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +15.0% and closing higher in all 5 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.6% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade