The takeaway
Octave Specialty Group, Inc. shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in October (+2.3%) and softest in March (−9.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 60% of years, averaging +4.3%, about +2.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Octave Specialty Group, Inc.'s most dependable month has been October, higher in 8 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+5.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−10.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Octave Specialty Group, Inc.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Octave Specialty Group, Inc.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 100% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: October, up in 8 of 10 Octobers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
A typical October brings +1.0%, a shade under the +2.3% average. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 6.0% spread), and even its worst October in 10 years lost only 6.7% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: October has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.3 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages October only about 53% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: April, June, and July have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−9.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −37.8% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
October has now closed higher 5 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Octobers run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: October aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (October, +2.3%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −9.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +2.3% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −9.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade