The takeaway
Pan American Silver Corp. shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+8.2%) and softest in February (−3.7%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +8.2%, about +6.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Pan American Silver Corp.'s most dependable month has been July, higher in 7 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+7.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−3.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Pan American Silver Corp.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Pan American Silver Corp.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 60% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: July, up in 7 of 10 Julys while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+8.2%) and median (+8.4%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 10.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +6.1 points above the index. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — July rises for about 61% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
A few other months pull their weight: March, May, and December have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−3.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in February, September, and August. Its roughest month on record was a −31.9% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, July's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (July), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (July, +8.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −3.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +8.2% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade