The takeaway
abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in September (+2.8%) and softest in May (−2.9%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 60% of years, averaging +3.9%, about +1.7 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF's most dependable month has been September, higher in 8 of 10 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+3.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−3.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating abrdn Physical Palladium Shares ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, September has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. September stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Septembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+2.8%) and median (+6.9%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even September ranges by 9.3% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: September has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.9 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: September lifts just 39% of stocks across the market.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — September–December forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, May has been the soft spot — the only month to average an outright loss (−2.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in May, November, and April.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: September aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (September), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (September, +2.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, −2.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +2.8% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade