The takeaway
Pagerduty Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 7 years of data — strongest in December (+6.2%) and softest in September (−8.9%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 57% of years, averaging +0.9%, roughly 1.2 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Pagerduty Inc's most dependable month has been December, higher in 5 of 7 years; September has been its least reliable, up just 29% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2019 | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+5.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in September (−8.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Pagerduty Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Pagerduty Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, December has closed higher 80% of the time versus 71% across the last 7 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) December return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 7(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 7-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — December. It has closed higher in 5 of 7 Decembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+6.2%) and median (+8.1%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even December ranges by 11.6% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — December has outpaced the S&P 500 by +5.2 points on average. Few peers keep such company in December — the typical stock clears it just 58% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January and June have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, September has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−8.9%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in September, February, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −26.0% September in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a stock this dependable in December, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 7-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (December), its worst (September), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2019 its best month (December, +6.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (September, −8.9%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
December has been the strongest, averaging +6.2% and closing higher in 5 of 7 years since 2019.
It's the weakest, averaging −8.9% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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