The takeaway
Penn National Gaming Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in November (+4.4%) and softest in March (−8.5%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 60% of years, averaging +2.0% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Penn National Gaming Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 7 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+6.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−9.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Penn National Gaming Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Penn National Gaming Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 60% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. November stands out, higher in 7 of 10 Novembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+4.4%) and median (+6.0%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 17.2% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.1 points above the index. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — November rises for about 62% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — November–January forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−8.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −55.2% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (November, +4.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −8.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +4.4% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −8.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade