The takeaway
Preferred Bank shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in October (+3.8%) and softest in March (−6.5%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +4.9%, about +2.7 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Preferred Bank's most dependable month has been October, higher in 8 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+3.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−7.5 pts).
“vs S&P” is Preferred Bank’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Preferred Bank’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. October stands out, higher in 8 of 10 Octobers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+3.8%) and median (+3.2%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: October has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.8 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages October only about 53% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, April, and May have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−6.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March and May. Its roughest month on record was a −35.0% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, October's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: October aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (October, +3.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −6.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +3.8% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade