The takeaway
Global X U.S. Preferred ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in July (+2.0%) and softest in October (−1.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 100% of years, averaging +2.0% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Global X U.S. Preferred ETF's most dependable month has been July, higher in 8 of 8 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 22% of the time.
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| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Global X U.S. Preferred ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Global X U.S. Preferred ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 9 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and July is the anchor — it has closed higher in all 8 Julys, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.0%) and median (+1.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: July's returns vary by just 1.8% year to year, and even its worst July in 9 years lost only 0.3% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Set against the S&P 500, mind, July is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
July anchors a run, too: the May-through-August window has been the fund's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, October has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −10.4% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
July has now closed higher 8 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a fund this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2017 its best month (July, +2.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (October, −1.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +2.0% and closing higher in all 8 years on record since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade