The takeaway
Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in April (+13.2%) and softest in November (−7.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 40% of years, averaging −1.6%, roughly 3.7 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF's most dependable month has been April, higher in 4 of 4 years; November has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+11.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−9.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, April has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: April, up in all 4 Aprils while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+13.2%) and median (+13.6%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 6.8% spread), and even its worst April in 5 years lost only 3.3% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: April has cleared the S&P 500 by +11.5 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages April only about 55% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, February, and August have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: November has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−7.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, June, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −16.6% September in 2025 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: April aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (April), its worst (November), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (April, +13.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (November, −7.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +13.2% and closing higher in all 4 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −7.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade