The takeaway
Simplify Exchange Traded Funds - Simplify Health Care ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in November (+4.4%) and softest in December (+1.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 75% of years, averaging +1.8% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Simplify Exchange Traded Funds - Simplify Health Care ETF's most dependable month has been November, higher in 4 of 5 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in June (+3.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−3.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is Simplify Exchange Traded Funds - Simplify Health Care ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Simplify Exchange Traded Funds - Simplify Health Care ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — November. It has closed higher in 4 of 5 Novembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.4%) and median (+4.3%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.1 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — February, March, and June have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, December is the year's low point, though even there the fund has stayed positive on average (+1.3%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, May, and January.
For a fund this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2021 its best month (November, +4.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (December, +1.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +4.4% and closing higher in 4 of 5 years since 2021.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+1.3%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade