The takeaway
ProPetro Holding Corp shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in October (+12.9%) and softest in March (−10.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 56% of years, averaging −0.2%, roughly 2.4 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
ProPetro Holding Corp's most dependable month has been October, higher in 6 of 9 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in October (+11.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−11.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is ProPetro Holding Corp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ProPetro Holding Corp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 80% of the time versus 67% across the last 9 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a feast-or-famine calendar. October reads as the strong month, higher in 6 of 9 Octobers, but the tale is one of a few outsized years more than steady gains.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+12.9%) runs well ahead of the median (+4.4%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even October ranges by 30.8% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — October has outpaced the S&P 500 by +11.9 points on average. Few peers keep such company in October — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, June, and September have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−10.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, August, and July. Its roughest month on record was a −71.8% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Octobers run ahead of the earlier years.
Hold it loosely, then: the October tendency is genuine but lumpy, more about the occasional outsized year than a gain to bank on. With a short 9-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2017 its best month (October, +12.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −10.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +12.9% and closing higher in 6 of 9 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −10.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade