The takeaway
Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in March (+0.5%) and softest in February (−2.4%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 60% of years, averaging +0.5%, roughly 1.7 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production ETF's most dependable month has been March, higher in 7 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+5.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−2.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Invesco Dynamic Energy Exploration & Production ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, March has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: March, up in 7 of 10 Marches while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+0.5%) and median (+3.3%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even March ranges by 16.1% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages March only about 56% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: May, July, and August have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−2.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in February, December, and October.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Marches run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: March aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (March), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — March is the firmest (+0.5%) and February the softest (−2.4%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
March has been the strongest, averaging +0.5% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade