The takeaway
Innovator ETFs Trust shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 2 years of data — strongest in September (+4.7%) and softest in March (−1.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 50% of years, averaging +1.2%, roughly 0.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Innovator ETFs Trust's most dependable month has been September, higher in 2 of 2 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 50% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+4.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Innovator ETFs Trust’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Innovator ETFs Trust’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent September history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 2 years versus the last 2(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 2-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. September stands out, higher in all 2 Septembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+4.7%) and median (+4.7%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: September has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.8 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: September lifts just 39% of stocks across the market.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — August–October forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−1.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and July.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: September aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 2-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (September), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2024 its best month (September, +4.7%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −1.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +4.7% and closing higher in all 2 years on record since 2024.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade