The takeaway
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 6 years of data — strongest in November (+5.1%) and softest in February (−1.5%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 80% of years, averaging +3.9%, about +1.7 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF's most dependable month has been November, higher in 5 of 6 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 20% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+3.1 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−4.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 83% across the last 6 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 6(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 6-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and November is the anchor — it has closed higher in 5 of 6 Novembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+5.1%) and median (+5.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: November's returns vary by just 4.4% year to year, and even its worst November in 6 years lost only 2.0% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.8 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, April, and May have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, September, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −13.4% April in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
One run worth flagging just ended: a 5-year streak of positive Novembers was snapped by a −2.0% close in 2025. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a fund this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 6-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2020 its best month (November, +5.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −1.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +5.1% and closing higher in 5 of 6 years since 2020.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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