The takeaway
RBB Bancorp shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in November (+6.0%) and softest in February (−1.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 56% of years, averaging +6.4%, about +4.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
RBB Bancorp's most dependable month has been November, higher in 7 of 9 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+4.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−7.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is RBB Bancorp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating RBB Bancorp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 78% across the last 9 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — November. It has closed higher in 7 of 9 Novembers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+6.0%) runs well ahead of the median (+1.5%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 10.7% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +3.6 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
November anchors a run, too: the October-through-December window has been the stock's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−1.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −22.0% March in 2023 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Novembers run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2017 its best month (November, +6.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −1.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +6.0% and closing higher in 7 of 9 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade