The takeaway
VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in October (+0.5%) and softest in March (−4.4%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 60% of years, averaging +8.4%, about +6.2 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF's most dependable month has been October, higher in 8 of 10 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+6.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−5.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The seasonal story is really one month's story — October. It has closed higher in 8 of 10 Octobers, a concentration the rest of the calendar can't touch.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+0.5%) and median (+0.3%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: October's returns vary by just 7.3% year to year. Set against the S&P 500, mind, October is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. Few peers keep such company in October — the typical stock clears it just 53% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — February, May, and July have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−4.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −22.6% January in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
For a fund this dependable in October, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the fund's best month (October), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (October, +0.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −4.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +0.5% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −4.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade