The takeaway
FolioBeyond Rising Rates ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in April (+4.0%) and softest in November (−0.7%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 50% of years, averaging −1.0%, roughly 3.1 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
FolioBeyond Rising Rates ETF's most dependable month has been April, higher in 4 of 4 years; November has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+3.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−3.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is FolioBeyond Rising Rates ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating FolioBeyond Rising Rates ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, April has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and April is the anchor — it has closed higher in all 4 Aprils, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.0%) and median (+3.3%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — April has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.4 points on average. Few peers keep such company in April — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, February, and June have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. On the other side of the ledger, November has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−0.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in July and November.
For a fund this dependable in April, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (April), its worst (November), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2021 its best month (April, +4.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (November, −0.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +4.0% and closing higher in all 4 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade