The takeaway
First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in May (+3.4%) and softest in February (−1.5%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 75% of years, averaging +2.6% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF's most dependable month has been May, higher in 6 of 8 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2018 | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+3.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating First Trust Nasdaq Artificial Intelligence and Robotics ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 80% of the time versus 75% across the last 8 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: May, up in 6 of 8 Mays while the other eleven tend to blur together.
A typical May brings +2.4%, a shade under the +3.4% average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: May has cleared the S&P 500 by +2.7 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages May only about 55% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — May–August forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−1.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, October, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −17.0% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: May aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (May), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2018 its best month (May, +3.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −1.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
May has been the strongest, averaging +3.4% and closing higher in 6 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade