The takeaway
SPDR S&P Kensho Final Frontiers shows a slight seasonal lean over 8 years of data — strongest in July (+3.7%) and softest in October (+0.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 86% of years, averaging +3.7%, about +1.6 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
SPDR S&P Kensho Final Frontiers's most dependable month has been July, higher in 6 of 7 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 38% of the time.
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| 2018 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+2.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is SPDR S&P Kensho Final Frontiers’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating SPDR S&P Kensho Final Frontiers’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 86% across the last 8 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and July is the anchor — it has closed higher in 6 of 7 Julys, the steadiest beat on its year.
A typical July brings +2.5%, a shade under the +3.7% average. Few months are steadier: July's returns vary by just 4.5% year to year, and even its worst July in 8 years lost only 2.8% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — July has outpaced the S&P 500 by +1.6 points on average. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, May, and November have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, October is the year's low point, though even there the fund has stayed positive on average (+0.8%), a sign every month leans up, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March and September. Its roughest month on record was a −23.7% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Julys run ahead of the earlier years.
For a fund this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 8-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — July is the firmest (+3.7%) and October the softest (+0.8%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
July has been the strongest, averaging +3.7% and closing higher in 6 of 7 years since 2018.
It's the weakest month, but it has still averaged a small gain (+0.8%) — quiet rather than genuinely bad.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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