The takeaway
Red River Bancshares Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 7 years of data — strongest in October (+4.2%) and softest in January (−1.4%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 43% of years, averaging +1.4%, roughly 0.8 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Red River Bancshares Inc's most dependable month has been October, higher in 7 of 7 years; January has been its least reliable, up just 33% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2019 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in November (+5.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−5.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is Red River Bancshares Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Red River Bancshares Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 7 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 7(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 7-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: October, up in all 7 Octobers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+4.2%) and median (+3.8%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is among its calmest months, too, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 3.0% spread), and even its worst October in 7 years lost only 0.6% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: October has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.2 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages October only about 53% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: April and November have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, January has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and January. Its roughest month on record was a −28.3% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
October has now closed higher 7 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: October aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 7-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (January), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2019 its best month (October, +4.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (January, −1.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +4.2% and closing higher in all 7 years on record since 2019.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade