The takeaway
Redwood Trust Inc shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in June (+4.4%) and softest in February (−1.5%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 80% of years, averaging +4.3%, about +2.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Redwood Trust Inc's most dependable month has been June, higher in 8 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+4.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.7 pts).
“vs S&P” is Redwood Trust Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Redwood Trust Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, June has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: June, up in 8 of 10 Junes while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+4.4%) and median (+4.4%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even June ranges by 12.1% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: June has cleared the S&P 500 by +4.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages June only about 52% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — June–August forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, April, and December. Its roughest month on record was a −70.6% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Junes run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: June aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (June), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (June, +4.4%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −1.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +4.4% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade