The takeaway
RXO Inc. shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in June (+12.8%) and softest in April (−15.4%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 33% of years, averaging +2.1% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
RXO Inc.'s most dependable month has been June, higher in 3 of 3 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in June (+12.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−17.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is RXO Inc.’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating RXO Inc.’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, June has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: June, up in all 3 Junes while the other eleven tend to blur together.
The headline flatters a touch — its +12.8% average sits well above the +6.3% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Junes. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even June ranges by 11.3% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: June has cleared the S&P 500 by +12.5 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages June only about 52% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, February, and May have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−15.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April, December, and August. Its roughest month on record was a −25.5% April in 2025 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: June aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (June), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2022 its best month (June, +12.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −15.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
June has been the strongest, averaging +12.8% and closing higher in all 3 years on record since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −15.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade