The takeaway
Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in November (+4.1%) and softest in April (−6.5%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 60% of years, averaging +2.3% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc's most dependable month has been November, higher in 4 of 5 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+8.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−8.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Ryan Specialty Group Holdings Inc’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and November is the anchor — it has closed higher in 4 of 5 Novembers, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.1%) and median (+6.3%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 8.3% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — November has outpaced the S&P 500 by +1.8 points on average. Few peers keep such company in November — the typical stock clears it just 62% of the time.
November anchors a run, too: the May-through-November window has been the stock's reliable season. On the other side of the ledger, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−6.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in April and December. Its roughest month on record was a −13.3% December in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
For a stock this dependable in November, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (November), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (November, +4.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −6.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +4.1% and closing higher in 4 of 5 years since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade