The takeaway
Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in April (+15.0%) and softest in July (−8.1%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 25% of years, averaging −8.1%, roughly 10.3 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF's most dependable month has been April, higher in 3 of 4 years; July has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+13.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−10.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Tuttle Capital Short Innovation ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, April has closed higher 75% of the time versus 75% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: April, up in 3 of 4 Aprils while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+15.0%) and median (+11.5%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even April ranges by 14.5% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: April has cleared the S&P 500 by +13.4 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages April only about 55% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: February and December have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: July has been the soft spot — the weakest of 6 months that average a loss (−8.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, July, and June. Its roughest month on record was a −38.7% November in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: April aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (April), its worst (July), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (April, +15.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (July, −8.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +15.0% and closing higher in 3 of 4 years since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −8.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade