The takeaway
Schwab Core Bond ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 1 years of data — strongest in June (+1.9%) and softest in March (−0.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 100% of years, averaging 0.0%, roughly 2.1 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Schwab Core Bond ETF's most dependable month has been June, higher in 1 of 1 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | — | |||||||||||
| Median return % | — | |||||||||||
| 2025 | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+1.7 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−2.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Schwab Core Bond ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Schwab Core Bond ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent June history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) June return and how often it rose — the last 1 years versus the last 1(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 1-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. June stands out, higher in all 1 Junes, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+1.9%) and median (+1.9%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 0.0% spread), and even its worst June in 1 years lost only 1.9% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: June has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.6 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages June only about 52% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — June–December forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, March is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in July, April, and November.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: June aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 1-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (June), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — June is the firmest (+1.9%) and March the softest (−0.3%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
June has been the strongest, averaging +1.9% and closing higher in its one year on record since 2025.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade