The takeaway
Schwab 1000 ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in July (+3.2%) and softest in February (−1.5%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 100% of years, averaging +3.2%, about +1.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Schwab 1000 ETF's most dependable month has been July, higher in 8 of 8 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 38% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−2.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Schwab 1000 ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Schwab 1000 ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 9 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. July stands out, higher in all 8 Julys, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+3.2%) and median (+2.8%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 2.3% spread), and even its worst July in 9 years lost only 0.7% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages July only about 61% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — March–August forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−1.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −16.9% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
July has now closed higher 8 years running. Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2017 its best month (July, +3.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −1.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +3.2% and closing higher in all 8 years on record since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade