The takeaway
Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 7 years of data — strongest in November (+3.0%) and softest in April (−2.5%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 67% of years, averaging +2.0% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF's most dependable month has been November, higher in 6 of 7 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 17% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
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| 2019 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−4.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Schwab Long-Term U.S. Treasury ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 86% across the last 7 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 7(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 7-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: November, up in 6 of 7 Novembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+3.0%) and median (+3.2%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +0.6 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: June and July have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−2.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, October, and August.
November has now closed higher 6 years running. If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Novembers run ahead of the earlier years.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 7-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2019 its best month (November, +3.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −2.5%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +3.0% and closing higher in 6 of 7 years since 2019.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade