The takeaway
Schwab International Dividend Equity ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in March (+2.1%) and softest in February (−1.0%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 80% of years, averaging +1.6%, roughly 0.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Schwab International Dividend Equity ETF's most dependable month has been March, higher in 4 of 4 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−2.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Schwab International Dividend Equity ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Schwab International Dividend Equity ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, March has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) March return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: March, up in all 4 Marches while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+2.1%) and median (+2.1%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 1.2% spread), and even its worst March in 5 years lost only 0.4% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: March has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.1 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages March only about 56% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: January, May, and July have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−1.0%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, September, and June.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: March aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (March), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2021 its best month (March, +2.1%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −1.0%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
March has been the strongest, averaging +2.1% and closing higher in all 4 years on record since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −1.0% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade