The takeaway
Schwab Municipal Bond ETF shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 4 years of data — strongest in November (+3.2%) and softest in April (−0.7%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 67% of years, averaging +0.3%, roughly 1.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Schwab Municipal Bond ETF's most dependable month has been November, higher in 4 of 4 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+0.9 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−2.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Schwab Municipal Bond ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Schwab Municipal Bond ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 4 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 4 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 4 years versus the last 4(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 4-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. November stands out, higher in all 4 Novembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+3.2%) and median (+3.3%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +0.8 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: June, July, and August have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−0.7%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, October, and July.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 4-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2022 its best month (November, +3.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −0.7%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +3.2% and closing higher in all 4 years on record since 2022.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.7% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade