The takeaway
Schwab High Yield Bond ETF shows a slight seasonal lean over 3 years of data — strongest in November (+2.1%) and softest in October (−0.5%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 100% of years, averaging +1.1%, roughly 1.0 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Schwab High Yield Bond ETF's most dependable month has been November, higher in 3 of 3 years; October has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in August (+1.0 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−2.1 pts).
“vs S&P” is Schwab High Yield Bond ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Schwab High Yield Bond ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, November has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 3 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 3(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 3-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. November stands out, higher in all 3 Novembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+2.1%) and median (+1.6%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Set against the S&P 500, mind, November is close to a wash — the gain mirrors the market more than it beats it. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — November–January forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, October has been the soft spot — the only month to average an outright loss (−0.5%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, October, and March.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 3-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (October), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The fund's months are fairly even — November is the firmest (+2.1%) and October the softest (−0.5%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
November has been the strongest, averaging +2.1% and closing higher in all 3 years on record since 2023.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.5% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade