The takeaway
First Trust SMID Cap Rising Dividend Achievers ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 9 years of data — strongest in July (+4.2%) and softest in March (−3.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 88% of years, averaging +4.2%, about +2.1 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
First Trust SMID Cap Rising Dividend Achievers ETF's most dependable month has been July, higher in 7 of 8 years; March has been its least reliable, up just 38% of the time.
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| 2017 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+2.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is First Trust SMID Cap Rising Dividend Achievers ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating First Trust SMID Cap Rising Dividend Achievers ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 80% of the time versus 88% across the last 9 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 9(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 9-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a fund you can almost set a calendar by, and July is the anchor — it has closed higher in 7 of 8 Julys, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+4.2%) and median (+3.3%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: July's returns vary by just 4.2% year to year, and even its worst July in 9 years lost only 1.1% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — July has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.1 points on average. Few peers keep such company in July — the typical stock clears it just 61% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, May, and August have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. The weaker half of the year is plainer: March has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−3.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in March, September, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −26.1% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Julys run ahead of the earlier years.
For a fund this dependable in July, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on. With a short 9-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (March), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2017 its best month (July, +4.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (March, −3.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +4.2% and closing higher in 7 of 8 years since 2017.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
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