The takeaway
Select Medical Holdings shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in April (+7.9%) and softest in January (−3.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 70% of years, averaging +8.0%, about +5.8 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Select Medical Holdings's most dependable month has been April, higher in 8 of 10 years; January has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in April (+6.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in March (−4.6 pts).
“vs S&P” is Select Medical Holdings’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Select Medical Holdings’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, April has closed higher 60% of the time versus 80% across the last 10 years — the pattern is weakening.
Figures are the typical (median) April return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: April, up in 8 of 10 Aprils while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+7.9%) and median (+7.4%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even April ranges by 10.4% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the stock's own rather than a rising tide's: April has cleared the S&P 500 by +6.3 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages April only about 55% of the time.
A few other months pull their weight: June, July, and November have also closed higher more often than not. At the other end of the calendar, January has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−3.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in March, January, and October. Its roughest month on record was a −39.1% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The pattern has softened of late, April's last five years slipping below its longer-run record.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: April aside, the stock's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the stock's best month (April), its worst (January), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (April, +7.9%) has run well ahead of its worst (January, −3.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
April has been the strongest, averaging +7.9% and closing higher in 8 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −3.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade