The takeaway
Sprott Energy Transition Materials ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 3 years of data — strongest in September (+11.6%) and softest in February (−6.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 67% of years, averaging +2.4% — essentially in line with the S&P 500.
The full picture
Sprott Energy Transition Materials ETF's most dependable month has been September, higher in 3 of 3 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+11.8 pts); it has trailed the market most in February (−6.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Sprott Energy Transition Materials ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Sprott Energy Transition Materials ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 3 years, September has closed higher 100% of the time versus 100% across the last 3 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) September return and how often it rose — the last 3 years versus the last 3(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 3-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: September, up in all 3 Septembers while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+11.6%) and median (+15.7%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even September ranges by 8.3% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: September has cleared the S&P 500 by +11.8 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: September lifts just 39% of stocks across the market.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — May–September forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. The weaker half of the year is plainer: February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 4 months that average a loss (−6.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in February, January, and March. Its roughest month on record was a −12.6% December in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: September aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 3-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (September), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2023 its best month (September, +11.6%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −6.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
September has been the strongest, averaging +11.6% and closing higher in all 3 years on record since 2023.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade