The takeaway
ProShares Short S&P500 shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in February (+1.0%) and softest in July (−2.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 0% of years, averaging −2.8%, roughly 4.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
ProShares Short S&P500's most dependable month has been February, higher in 5 of 10 years; July has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+1.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−5.9 pts).
“vs S&P” is ProShares Short S&P500’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ProShares Short S&P500’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, February has closed higher 60% of the time versus 50% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
There's little seasonal signal to find. No month pulls clear: February is nominally the steadiest, yet at 5 of 10 Februaries it's barely better than a coin toss.
Its roughest month on record was a −16.3% April in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The honest read is that the calendar is close to noise here — better treated as background than a reason to act.
Short answers on the fund's best month (February), its worst (July), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (February, +1.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (July, −2.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +1.0% and closing higher in 5 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade