The takeaway
Shell PLC ADR shows a slight seasonal lean over 10 years of data — strongest in May (+1.5%) and softest in August (−0.1%).
Right now
In July, the stock has fallen 50% of years, averaging −1.0%, roughly 3.2 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Shell PLC ADR's most dependable month has been May, higher in 7 of 10 years; August has been its least reliable, up just 40% of the time.
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Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in January (+1.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−3.2 pts).
“vs S&P” is Shell PLC ADR’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Shell PLC ADR’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, May has closed higher 80% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) May return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a stock you can almost set a calendar by, and May is the anchor — it has closed higher in 7 of 10 Mays, the steadiest beat on its year.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+1.5%) and median (+2.6%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — May has outpaced the S&P 500 by +0.8 points on average. Few peers keep such company in May — the typical stock clears it just 55% of the time.
It doesn't stand entirely alone — January, February, and March have leaned firm as well, if less emphatically. At the other end of the calendar, August is the year's quietest corner, essentially flat on average, and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in July, March, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −22.2% March in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Mays run ahead of the earlier years.
For a stock this dependable in May, the sharper question is the rest of the year — outside its strong stretch, the calendar gives far less to lean on.
Short answers on the stock's best month (May), its worst (August), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Only mildly. The stock's months are fairly even — May is the firmest (+1.5%) and August the softest (−0.1%), a narrow spread that points to weak seasonality rather than a strong calendar effect.
May has been the strongest, averaging +1.5% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −0.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade