The takeaway
iShares Silver Trust shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in July (+5.5%) and softest in February (−2.1%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 70% of years, averaging +5.5%, about +3.4 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
iShares Silver Trust's most dependable month has been July, higher in 7 of 10 years; February has been its least reliable, up just 30% of the time.
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Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in July (+3.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−2.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is iShares Silver Trust’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating iShares Silver Trust’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, July has closed higher 60% of the time versus 70% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) July return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. July stands out, higher in 7 of 10 Julys, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
The headline flatters a touch — its +5.5% average sits well above the +2.7% a typical year delivers, the work of a few big Julys. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even July ranges by 10.3% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: July has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.4 points above the index. Some of that is a strong month market-wide, mind — July rises for about 61% of stocks — so the tendency is real if not unique.
A few other months pull their weight: January, May, and August have also closed higher more often than not. On the other side of the ledger, February has been the soft spot — the weakest of 2 months that average a loss (−2.1%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, February, and September. Its roughest month on record was a −17.2% September in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: July aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt.
Short answers on the fund's best month (July), its worst (February), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (July, +5.5%) has run well ahead of its worst (February, −2.1%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
July has been the strongest, averaging +5.5% and closing higher in 7 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.1% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade