The takeaway
Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SMCI ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 2 years of data — strongest in February (+92.2%) and softest in December (−38.4%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 100% of years, averaging +48.2%, about +46.0 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SMCI ETF's most dependable month has been February, higher in 1 of 1 years; December has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in February (+92.4 pts); it has trailed the market most in December (−39.4 pts).
“vs S&P” is Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SMCI ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Defiance Daily Target 2X Long SMCI ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Not enough recent February history to say whether the pattern still holds.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 1 years versus the last 2(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 2-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Strip the year back and a single month does the heavy lifting: February, up in all 1 Februaries while the other eleven tend to blur together.
Its average (+92.2%) and median (+92.2%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. It is also the calendar's calmest month, its returns swinging least from year to year (a 0.0% spread), and even its worst February in 2 years lost only 92.2% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: February has cleared the S&P 500 by +92.4 points above the index. It bucks the broad tape, besides: February lifts just 49% of stocks across the market.
A few other months pull their weight: May, June, and July have also closed higher more often than not. The weaker half of the year is plainer: December has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−38.4%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in December, October, and August. Its roughest month on record was a −63.0% October in 2024 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: February aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 2-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (February), its worst (December), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2024 its best month (February, +92.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (December, −38.4%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +92.2% and closing higher in its one year on record since 2024.
It's the weakest, averaging −38.4% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade