The takeaway
Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X Shares shows a moderate seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in February (+1.2%) and softest in July (−2.8%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 0% of years, averaging −2.8%, roughly 4.9 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X Shares's most dependable month has been February, higher in 5 of 9 years; July has been its least reliable, up just 0% of the time.
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| 2016 | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+1.5 pts); it has trailed the market most in November (−5.8 pts).
“vs S&P” is Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X Shares’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Direxion Daily S&P 500® Bear 1X Shares’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, February has closed higher 60% of the time versus 56% across the last 10 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
The year leans February's way without overwhelming the rest of it: the fund has closed higher in 5 of 9 Februaries, its most dependable month if not a dominant one.
Its average (+1.2%) and median (+1.2%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: February has cleared the S&P 500 by +1.5 points above the index.
On the other side of the ledger, July has been the soft spot — the weakest of 7 months that average a loss (−2.8%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in November, July, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −16.3% April in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
Reassuringly, the tendency has held its shape: the recent five years still track the years behind them.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise.
Short answers on the fund's best month (February), its worst (July), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a moderate degree. Since 2016 its best month (February, +1.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (July, −2.8%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +1.2% and closing higher in 5 of 9 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −2.8% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade