The takeaway
Spear Alpha ETF shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 5 years of data — strongest in November (+5.8%) and softest in April (−6.3%).
Right now
In July, the fund has risen 75% of years, averaging +6.0%, about +3.8 pts better than the S&P 500.
The full picture
Spear Alpha ETF's most dependable month has been November, higher in 4 of 5 years; April has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in May (+9.3 pts); it has trailed the market most in April (−8.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Spear Alpha ETF’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Spear Alpha ETF’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, November has closed higher 80% of the time versus 80% across the last 5 years — the pattern is holding.
Figures are the typical (median) November return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 5(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 5-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
Dependability is the through-line here. November stands out, higher in 4 of 5 Novembers, but it heads a clutch of months that pull the year reliably upward.
Its average (+5.8%) and median (+6.0%) land within a hair of each other — the tell of steady, year-after-year gains rather than one outlier doing the work. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even November ranges by 9.8% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Crucially, the gain is the fund's own rather than a rising tide's: November has cleared the S&P 500 by +3.5 points above the index. That consistency sets it apart from the field, where the average stock manages November only about 62% of the time.
The strength clusters rather than stands alone — October–December forms a firm stretch that carries much of the year. On the other side of the ledger, April has been the soft spot — the weakest of 3 months that average a loss (−6.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in April, March, and February. Its roughest month on record was a −17.3% April in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
The takeaway is less about when to buy than what to expect: November aside, the fund's months offer little reliable tilt. With a short 5-year record, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (November), its worst (April), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2021 its best month (November, +5.8%) has run well ahead of its worst (April, −6.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
November has been the strongest, averaging +5.8% and closing higher in 4 of 5 years since 2021.
It's the weakest, averaging −6.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade