The takeaway
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 10 years of data — strongest in February (+2.0%) and softest in July (−11.2%).
Right now
In July, the fund has fallen 10% of years, averaging −11.2%, roughly 13.3 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ's most dependable month has been February, higher in 6 of 10 years; July has been its least reliable, up just 10% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | ||||||||||||
| 2017 | ||||||||||||
| 2016 |
Month by month
The fund's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in September (+4.6 pts); it has trailed the market most in July (−13.3 pts).
“vs S&P” is ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, February has closed higher 80% of the time versus 60% across the last 10 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) February return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 10(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 10-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
There's a real but measured seasonal tilt here, toward February — the firmest corner of the calendar, higher in 6 of 10 Februaries.
The strength looks broad-based rather than freakish: its average (+2.0%) and median (+4.4%) sit close together, so no single blow-out year is flattering the figure. Few months are steadier: February's returns vary by just 9.7% year to year, and even its worst February in 10 years lost only 10.9% — the gentlest downside anywhere on its calendar. Better still, that strength is the fund's own and not just a buoyant market — February has outpaced the S&P 500 by +2.3 points on average. It is the more striking for the company it keeps — February is a losing month for most of the market, where barely 49% of names gain ground.
The weaker half of the year is plainer: July has been the soft spot — the weakest of 9 months that average a loss (−11.2%), and the edge isn't year-round — the fund has trailed the S&P 500 in July, November, and May. Its roughest month on record was a −47.2% April in 2020 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Februaries run ahead of the earlier years.
Treat it as a tendency rather than a rule — seasonality describes the past, not a promise. With returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the fund's best month (February), its worst (July), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2016 its best month (February, +2.0%) has run well ahead of its worst (July, −11.2%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
February has been the strongest, averaging +2.0% and closing higher in 6 of 10 years since 2016.
It's the weakest, averaging −11.2% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade