The takeaway
Scholar Rock Holding Corp shows a pronounced seasonal pattern over 8 years of data — strongest in October (+60.2%) and softest in May (−11.3%).
Right now
In July, the stock has risen 63% of years, averaging +0.7%, roughly 1.5 pts behind the S&P 500.
The full picture
Scholar Rock Holding Corp's most dependable month has been October, higher in 5 of 8 years; May has been its least reliable, up just 25% of the time.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Win rate % | ||||||||||||
| Median return % | ||||||||||||
| 2025 | ||||||||||||
| 2024 | ||||||||||||
| 2023 | ||||||||||||
| 2022 | ||||||||||||
| 2021 | ||||||||||||
| 2020 | ||||||||||||
| 2019 | ||||||||||||
| 2018 | — | — | — | — |
Month by month
The stock's clearest edge over the S&P 500 lands in October (+59.2 pts); it has trailed the market most in May (−12.0 pts).
“vs S&P” is Scholar Rock Holding Corp’s average for a month minus the S&P 500’s average for that same month — isolating Scholar Rock Holding Corp’s own seasonal edge from broad market drift.
Reality check
Over the last 5 years, October has closed higher 60% of the time versus 63% across the last 8 years — the pattern is strengthening.
Figures are the typical (median) October return and how often it rose — the last 5 years versus the last 8(the heatmap’s default window). This verdict stays anchored to that 8-year window even if you zoom the chart, so it never disagrees with the badges above.
In plain English
This is a feast-or-famine calendar. October reads as the strong month, higher in 5 of 8 Octobers, but the tale is one of a few outsized years more than steady gains.
Read it with one caveat: the average (+60.2%) runs well ahead of the median (+18.9%), so a handful of outsized years — not steady strength — do much of the lifting. That reliability comes with real swings, mind — even October ranges by 95.5% from year to year, so any single year can land far from the average. Better still, that strength is the stock's own and not just a buoyant market — October has outpaced the S&P 500 by +59.2 points on average.
October anchors a run, too: the October-through-December window has been the stock's reliable season. At the other end of the calendar, May has been the soft spot — the weakest of 5 months that average a loss (−11.3%), and the edge isn't year-round — the stock has trailed the S&P 500 in May, March, and April. Its roughest month on record was a −47.3% April in 2022 — a reminder of how hard even a seasonal name can fall.
If anything it has sharpened recently — the last five Octobers run ahead of the earlier years.
Hold it loosely, then: the October tendency is genuine but lumpy, more about the occasional outsized year than a gain to bank on. With a short 8-year record and returns that swing hard year to year, the signal is best held loosely.
Short answers on the stock's best month (October), its worst (May), and whether it really trades seasonally.
Yes, to a pronounced degree. Since 2018 its best month (October, +60.2%) has run well ahead of its worst (May, −11.3%) — the heatmap above shows how steady that gap has been year to year.
October has been the strongest, averaging +60.2% and closing higher in 5 of 8 years since 2018.
It's the weakest, averaging −11.3% — historically a soft spot, though it still varies from year to year.
Explore
These names have the strongest July track records on record — a starting point for comparison.
Before you trade